From the category archives:

Taiwan

Taiwan: Strong 4Q09 GDP Confirms a V-shaped Recovery

22 February 2010

4Q09 GDP surprises strongly on the upside — The actual 9.22% yoy growth was much higher than the market estimate of 7.10% yoy growth; Not only is the speed of the recovery impressive (just 4 quarters of negative QoQ GDP growth), but also the momentum is very strong (three consecutive quarters of double-digit saar growth); For 2010, the government upgraded its GDP forecast to 4.72% from 4.39%. The government raised its 2010 CPI forecast to 1.27% from 0.92%.

Hong Kong / Taiwan – Foreign Portfolio Inflows: A Clear and Present Danger?

10 February 2010

Flows to HK/Taiwan shrink on Europe sovereign fears, PBOC tightening risks; We studied correlations btwn net portfolio flows vs US / China monetary policy; Portfolio capital flows into Taiwan respond positively to Fed’s policy while In HK’s case, the correlation coefficient indicates a very weak linkage; China’s monetary policy also begins to show influence on capital inflows; Portfolio capital inflows likely to retreat in coming months, resume in 2H10

Taiwan: Strong Jan Exports on Pre-shipment to China before Chinese New Year

9 February 2010

Jan exports were much stronger than expected — Exports reached US$21.7bn in January, the highest level since October 2008. Strong China demand led to broad-based growth in exports. Jan imports were the strongest since the beginning of global financial crisis in Oct 2008. Exports likely decelerate in Feb on Chinese New Year

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (05 Feb 2010)

6 February 2010

China — RMB could become one of the world’s top five currencies by 2020; Current account surplus shrunk to 5.8% of GDP in 2009; The holiday shift distorts inflation. India — The low base along with government stimulus measures are likely to maintain the double-digit IP growth. Indonesia — Exports rebound and robust consumption may post upside risks to growth. Korea — We expect the policy rate will remain at 2% during the upcoming MPC meeting; Jan jobless rate likely decline to 3.4%. Malaysia — Dec exports surprise on the upside at 18.7% YoY; Positive IP growth likely to resume in Dec 09. Philippines — Retreating food inflation led to lower-than-expected inflation in Jan. Singapore — Nominal retail sales in Dec09 likely fell further on outsized base effect. Taiwan — Jan CPI resumed a positive reading and is set on a rising trend.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (04 Feb 2010)

5 February 2010

Vietnam: Long term investors stay positive, but macro policy issues remain unresolved; Philippines: base money growth spikes during election years and eases post-elections; Indonesia: BI held the policy rate at 6.5%, as expected; Malaysia: Exports likely increased 18.6% YoY in Dec 2009; Philippines: Inflation in January likely to rise further to 5.2% YoY; Taiwan: Consumer prices likely increased slightly in January

Taiwan Financials – Five Things to Watch in 2010

4 February 2010

Following recent visits to several FIs in Taiwan, we summarize five broad takeaways including : [1] China progress slow; [2] Loan growth returning, but competition likely fierce; [3] Credit cost to stay low in 2010; [4] Fundraising Déjà vu; [5] Cautiously optimistic investment results

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (03 Feb 2010)

3 February 2010

Singapore — Economic Strategies Committee presented its seven key recommendations in its latest report, targeting GDP growth at 3-5% yoy; Hong Kong — Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.8 in January; Philippines — Upbeat tax revenues may point to faster inflation in Jan; Taiwan — The Taipei City Government will increase the property tax on luxury houses starting in July 2011; Thailand — BoT Deputy Gov. Atchana Waiquamdee downplayed rising core risk; Indonesia — BI is expected to keep policy rates on hold for the sixth consecutive month.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (29 Jan 2010)

29 January 2010

China targets 8% trade growth in 2010. Hong Kong: M3 growth slowed to 10.5% YoY in Dec on capital outflow; Retail sales in Dec09 likely to stay strong. India: RBI raises CRR by 75bps to 5.75% today with the policy rate unchanged; Exports growth may moderate to 9.2% YoY in Dec09. Indonesia: BI’s dovish tone strengthened our expectation of on-hold policy rate at 6.5% for the next six months. Korea: Performances in IT and Autos sectors continued to boost IP with double-digit growth in Dec 09. Singapore: Jobs creation outpaced labour force growth in 4Q09. Philippines: Higher prices on food items and petroleum products should lift non-core CPI by 11.8% YoY. Thailand Manufacturing production surged by 35.7% YoY in Dec09. Taiwan: Deflation likely to end by Jan.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (27 Jan 2010)

27 January 2010

Korea — The current account in 2009 recorded a historical-high level of surplus at USD42.7bn. Malaysia — We shift forward the timing of our rate hike forecasts, expecting a 25bps hike at the next policy meeting on 4 March followed by another 25bps on 13 May. Philippines — November 2009 manufacturing production index posted the first positive reading in the last 12 months; Drop in farm output in 4Q09 is likely to weigh on GDP, which we expect to rise by just 0.1% YoY. Taiwan — December 2009 leading index increased 0.8% MoM with coincident index up by a strong 2.0% MoM.

Emerging Markets Daily- Asia Edition (26 Jan 2010)

26 January 2010

Thailand — The BoT’s latest inflation report, highlighting downside risks to its baseline growth and inflation forecasts, could still support a rate tightening cycle scheduled early 2010.
Hong Kong — The December trade deficit widened to a new high in 2009 as exports only rose by 9.2% YoY while imports jumped by 18.7% YoY.
Korea — Economic recovery continued although 4Q09 GDP slowed to 0.2% QoQ vs 3Q’s 3.2% QoQ
Philippines — Imports rose 40.5% YoY in Nov 09 largely on higher oil prices, while a faster pace of export growth led to a slight trade surplus.
Singapore — Dec’s IP surprised on the upside as it jumped 14.4% YoY vs. November’s 9.5% decline; 4Q09 GDP likely to be upgraded.
Taiwan — Both leading and coincident indices are expected to continue to trend upwards.
US — We expect a small rebound in new home sales in December.

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