From the category archives:

Singapore

Singapore Macro Chartbook – Technical Bounceback in 1Q on Track, But Watch Out for Risks

8 March 2010

After the pause for breath in 4Q09, the technical bounce back that we expected for 1Q10 appears to be on track. The recent resurgence of property market activity has triggered more demand-side measures, which we think have limited real impact. But this raises the risk of further, more drastic measures down the road if property activity continues to surge. Property policy aside, populist pressures ahead of general elections, especially in the realm of immigration policy, pose another risk for domestic policy.

Morgan Stanley on Singapore Budget FY2010-2011: Moving from Short-Term Boost to Longer-Term Growth Sustainability

3 March 2010

The Minister of Finance delivered the F2010 Budget Speech late Monday afternoon. Below, we highlight three key points regarding the budget as well as our comments: (i) Unsurprisingly, it was a mild fiscal deficit; (ii) The Budget is more macro than micro and more long term than short term and (iii) Market reaction to budget announcements in the immediate aftermath is typically muted

Singapore Banks 4Q09 Results: Looking for Top Line Growth Catalysts as Provisions Normalize

2 March 2010

4Q09 results saw few surprises, suggesting limited consensus upgrades. With provisions trending back to normalized levels, we see a return to top line loan and fee growth as the next earnings catalyst. MAS policy tightening risk in April may be subsiding, but a persistent low interest rate environment will cap loan yields and net interest margins. We concede that banks no longer appear cheap, and history suggests that most of banks’ STI outperformance is done in the first 12-months of a market recovery, but we remain positive near-term on economic recovery (strong 1Q10 GDP growth, improving jobs data and returning business confidence) and renewed investment to drive loan recovery.

Singapore Weekly: Budget 2010 Focused on Productivity, Not Elections

1 March 2010

With both FY09 and FY10 deficit undershooting expectations, the fiscal position in 2009-2010 is considerably less expansionary than initially expected; Focus goes beyond labour productivity, but also enterprise and land productivity.

Singapore Budget 2010: All About Productivity

1 March 2010

Budget 2010 is focused on shifting the engine of growth from population (or foreign workers) to productivity. Target is to achieve 2-3% productivity growth per year for a whole decade (from 1% over last decade) to sustain 3-5% GDP growth.

Singapore: Downside Surprise in Jan CPI on Technical Factors

23 February 2010

CPI inflation (2009=100) rose by a modest 0.2%YoY (Dec: -0.5% YoY, 0%YoY under the 2004 base year index), lower than consensus expectations for a 0.7%YoY increase. This partly reflects methodological changes following the rebasing of the CPI index, particularly with regards to the measurement of housing costs. The mild headline inflation figure and recent downgrade in the inflation forecast, alongside continued caution on the 2H10 growth outlook, probably reduces the pressure for MAS to tighten in April at the margin.

Singapore: Not a Typical Pre-Election Budget

22 February 2010

Budget arithmetic suggests possibility that elections may be delayed; Centerpiece is S$5.5bn to enhance productivity over the next 5 years; Substantial, but phased-in hikes in foreign worker levies; Lower and middle-income households to benefit from redistributive efforts; Not a typical pre-election budget, positive for households, mixed for companies.

Singapore Macro: Mixed Start to the Year

22 February 2010

The first quarter has gotten off to a mixed start, with disappointing performance in non-oil domestic exports contrasting sharply with a continued recovery in services. Despite the recent upward revision in the official GDP growth forecast to 4.5-6.5% (from 3-5% previously), weaker than expected Jan NODX, official caution over the 2H10 outlook and downward revision in the official CPI inflation forecast to 2-3% (from 2.5-3.5%) may lessen the pressure for MAS to tighten monetary policy in April.

Singapore Property Daily Highligts (22 Feb 2010)

22 February 2010

Speculation: ‘More steps if needed’; Don’t sell your homes prematurely for a quick buck: PM Lee; More gentle therapy to cool the property fever; M&C to convert Copthorne Orchid Hotel into condos

Singapore: Official Growth Forecast Raised, Inflation Forecast Lowered

20 February 2010

Major Points: 4Q09 GDP revised upwards to +4.0%YoY, -2.8% QoQ SAAR; Upward revision in manufacturing and services output; Caution on 2H10 outlook despite higher 2010 GDP forecast of 4.5-6.5%; 2010 inflation forecast lowered to 2-3% (prev: 2.5-3.5%) on technical factors; Less pressure for MAS to tighten in April; but property measures possible.

← Previous Entries