From the category archives:

Emerging Asia

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (05 March 2010)

6 March 2010

Indonesia — We expect a gradual improvement on Indonesia’s rating to high double B in this year; China — Choppy data in Jan-Feb may show healthy progress in recovery; India — IP rose by 14.5% YoY in Jan; Korea — Benign inflation in Feb is likely to prompt BOK to hold policy rate unchanged at 2%; Malaysia — Favorable base effect along with mfg/export recoveries likely to maintain YoY IP growth in Jan at 11.5% YoY; Philippines — Lower-than-expected inflation in Feb (4.2%); BSP is not expected to hike rates at the next MP meeting; Taiwan — Inflation reached 2.4% YoY in Feb; Thailand — Benign inflation in Feb likely to ease the pressure on policy rate hike

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (04 March 2010)

4 March 2010

China — China’s economic recovery has been driven by two separate forces; Indonesia — House Votes Bank Century bailout as “Illegal” with the support of three ruling coalition partners; BI held the policy rate at 6.5%, as expected; Hong Kong — Retail sales value growth slowed to 6.6% YoY in January; Malaysia — Exports likely rose 38.6% YoY in Jan, continuing Dec’s expansion (18.7% YoY); Philippines — Sustained pass-through from elevated oil and food prices probably contributed to inflation of 4.5% YoY in Feb; Taiwan — Timing of the Lunar New Year in February this year and January last year will likely boost CPI inflation higher to 2.3% YoY in February.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (03 March 2010)

3 March 2010

China — Non-manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 55.1 to 46.4 in February; Hong Kong — PMI slipped to 54.6 in February from 55.8 in January; Indonesia — BI should keep policy rates on hold for the seventh consecutive months; Korea — Industrial production stayed flat at 0.0%mom; Malaysia — Robust GDP in 4Q may prompt the BNM to raise the OPR by 25bps to 2.25% at the MPC meeting next week.; Philippines — Near-term fiscal support for the 4-yr and 5-yr segment of the curve; Vietnam — The Ho Chi Minh City announced it will sell its inaugural US$700m overseas bonds.

Asian Equity Funds Go Underweight Southeast Asia

3 March 2010

Southeast Asia becomes an underweight at Asian funds for the 1st time since 03; Sector weights in Energy and Materials posted the largest MoM reduction in 15 months as the USD strengthened; Sustained inflows Japan equity funds kicking off

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (02 Mar 2010)

2 March 2010

Hong Kong — Services’ PMI is likely to decline modestly in Feb; Korea — The USD2.3bn trade surplus seen in Feb; Philippines — Liquidity drained by BSP (PHp1.55tr) may ease tight liquidity draining option; Taiwan — Feb’s consumer confidence index rebounded to a 4-year high; Thailand — We discuss two likely reasons behind the recent decision by the BOT; Benign core inflation in Feb, at 0.3%YoY.

Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy – The Next Thing To Worry About: Inflation (Feb 2010)

2 March 2010

Inflation has surprised on the upside in a number of emerging economies recently, raising the question: will the growth story in emerging markets set the stage for unpleasant adjustments in monetary policy this year? After all, Greece hasn’t been the only source of market turbulence since the start of 2010; Chinese monetary tightening played its role too. And it’s not just China where inflationary pressures may be rising: there are other countries – Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey among others – where inflation and expectations are on the increase. So will this lead to more reasons for the market to worry?

Asia Macro and Strategy Outlook: Monetary Policy at the Crossroads

2 March 2010

Recent data more mixed after strong 4Q, but robust 2010 outlook remains; Economic recovery + inflation risks = imminent policy normalization; China to hike RRR further, delay RMB move to late 2Q10, rate hike in 2H10; EU fiscal issues, if contained to periphery, should have limited Asia impact; Macro strategy – 1) Asia FX — We continue to expect Asia FX appreciation vs USD despite some downward revision to our EUR-USD forecast; 2) Asia rates and 3) Asia sovereign credits.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (01 Mar 2010)

2 March 2010

India — The FY11 fiscal deficit of 5.5% (of GDP) shows direction towards fiscal consolidation in FY12 budgetary measures; Fading base effect and demand recovery likely to raise exports by 11.5% in Jan; Thailand — High court affirmed AEC decision to seize Thaksin’s assets, but political risk may weigh on consumer and business expectations; Demand pressure likely to drive up Feb inflation to 4.3%yoy; China — Plunge in Feb mfg. PMI indicates policies tightening could be in effect; Indonesia — We maintain our view for BI to hold policy rate at 6.5% in Thu meeting; Korea — Inflation fell slightly in Feb.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (24 Feb 2010)

24 February 2010

Bangladesh — IMF highlighted two key concerns, inflation and infrastructure constraints; Hong Kong — 4Q09 GDP beats expectations, up 2.6%yoy or 2.3%qoq sa; Korea — Consumer confidence weakens in February; Malaysia — 4Q09 GDP turns positive at 4.5%yoy while January CPI remained tame at 1.3%yoy; Philippines — December imports likely to increase by 11.3% YoY; Vietnam — Feb CPI surges to 8.5%yoy.

Emerging Markets Daily – Asia Edition (23 Feb 2010)

23 February 2010

India — The recent Cabinet decision regarding fertilizer subsidies represents a step towards fiscal consolidation; Hong Kong — January CPI rose by 1.0% YoY (Dec: 1.3% YoY), in-line with expectations; Malaysia — Positive YoY GDP growth to resume in 4Q09 on recovering demand; Philippines — Government completed its FY10 external funding requirements with the Samurai bond issue; Singapore — CPI inflation surprised on the downside rising by a modest 0.2% YoY on technical factors, The FY10 budget is not a typical pre-election budget; Taiwan — The current account (CA) surplus increased to USD11.8bn in 4Q09

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