Malaysia Macro Outlook 2010: Cyclical Catch-Up and Structural Crossroads

by admin on 11/01/2010

[ipagelist tag=malaysia-macro-2010 num=7]

  • Near-term export-led cyclical catch-up is underway (albeit not in a straight path). Yoy GDP growth will probably peak at 7-8% in 1Q10, before moderating as base effects and earlier policy stimulus are gradually withdrawn.
  • While 3Q09 saw a net portfolio inflow after 5 straight quarters of outflows, inflows and FX reserve accumulation remain small.
  • Supply-side inflation pressures on subsidy reforms, with rates remaining below neutral until investment picks up decisively
  • Fiscal consolidation underway with reduced MGS/GII gross issuance, but calendar bias towards long end
  • Medium-term growth rebalancing requires tackling structural deficiencies

Download Citi Research’s Malaysia Macro Weekly (11 Jan 2010)

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Tagged as: Malaysia Economic Outlook, Malaysia Macro 2010, Malaysia Macro View/Weekly